Sharing the AI Windfall: A Strategic Approach to International Benefit-Sharing

Summary

If AI progress continues on its current trajectory, the developers of advanced AI systems—and the governments who house those developers—will accrue tremendous wealth and technological power.

In this post, I consider how and why US government[1] may want to internationally share some benefits accrued from advanced AI—like financial benefits or monitored access to private cutting-edge AI models. Building on prior work that discusses international benefit-sharing primarily from a global welfare or equality lens, I examine how strategic benefit-sharing could unlock international agreements that help all agreeing states and bolster global security.

Two “use cases”  for strategic benefit-sharing in international AI governance:

1. Incentivizing states to join a coalition on safe AI development

2. Securing the US’ lead in advanced AI development to allow for more safety work

I also highlight an important, albeit fuzzy, distinction between benefit-sharing and power-sharing:

• Benefit-sharing: Sharing AI-derived benefits that don't significantly alter power dynamics between the recipient and the provider.  

• Power-sharing: Sharing AI-derived benefits that significantly empower the recipient actor, thereby changing the relative power between the provider and recipient.

I identify four main clusters of benefits, but these categories overlap and some benefits don’t fit neatly into any category: Financial and resource-based benefits; Frontier AI benefits; National security benefits; and ‘Seats at the table’.

I conclude with two key considerations with respect to benefit-sharing:

• Credibility will be a key challenge for benefit-sharing and power-sharing agreements (See more)

• Benefit sharing strategies should account for potential risks. (See more)

Our 2024 Research Fellow Michel Justen was mentored by Matthew van der Merwe and Max Dalton.