Area: AI Forecasting, Governance and Strategy

Project Ideas: 

We are working on a detailed mainline scenario forecast that we will publish around the end of March. This is a time of particularly high uncertainty for us as we haven't decided on a direction for after the project. Potential projects include but aren't limited to:

1. Policy strategy research e.g. playbook for the intelligence explosion: Creating a playbook of policy options for soon after AGI is developed.

2. Scenario forecasting: Writing scenarios that branch off of our mainline scenario, exploring what might happen if important variables are changed. This could include detailed concrete threat modeling or detailed theories of victory.

3. Improve and run tabletop exercises (TTXs): We've created a TTX that many have found valuable, for which we'd like to expand the range of audiences that enjoy it and scale it to more people.

4. Targeted policy research: Do research to inform policymakers based on what seems important and in-demand.

Eli is working on forecasting detailed AI scenarios with the AI Futures Project. He advises Sage, an organization he cofounded that works on AI Digest (interactive AI explainers) and forecasting tools. He previously worked on the AI-powered research assistant Elicit.

Thomas founded the Center for AI Policy and did AI safety research at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.